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Failure of security at Fukushima? An unfortunate example of a black swan.

"When the car has broken, many will tell us where not to go.
Turkish proverb"

This proverb may be the main axis of the reflections I want to share in relation to the Fukushima incident. I start from the basis that the sequence of events on which I am going to base myself to assess what happened has as its source what was published by Foro Nuclear and its explanations. Specifically for the sequence that relates this section:

What happened at Unit 1 of the Fukushima - Daiichi nuclear power plant?

  1. The plant stopped immediately when the earthquake took place. The automatic emergency electrical systems worked properly.
  2. All power supply outside the plant was lost.
  3. Diesel generators began providing backup electricity for the plant's emergency cooling system.
  4. Emergency diesel generators stopped working about 1 hour later due to tsunami damage, due to lack of fuel supply.
  5. Insulation condensate was used to extract waste heat from the reactor.
  6. Apparently, the plant then suffered a small loss of coolant in the reactor.
  7. Reactor Core Isolation Cooling System (RCIC) pumps, which run on steam from the reactor, were used to complete the reactor core water inventory; however, the battery-powered control valves lost power in direct current after prolonged use.
  8. At that time the plant suffered a total loss of electricity supply.
  9. After several hours with loss of water inventory from the primary circuit, damage to the reactor core (due to fuel pod failure) occurred.
  10. Portable diesel generators were sent to the plant and the ac current power supply was restored, allowing an emergency pumping system to complete the water inventory inside the reactor vessel.
  11. The pressure in the dry containment well was increased due to the rise in temperature in the wet well. The containment of the dry well was vented towards the building of the secondary containment.
  12. The hydrogen that was produced by the oxidation of zirconium was vented from the primary containment into the reactor building.
  13. A hydrogen explosion occurred in the reactor building causing the roof and walls to collapse.
  14. The primary containment and reactor vessel have remained intact.
  15. The decision was made to inject seawater and boric acid into the reactor vessel to continue the cooling process, as an additional measure planned at the plant from the start.
  16. Controlled radiation emissions were produced by venting and subsequently decreased. This same sequence of events appears to have occurred in unit 3.
But what is a black swan? A black swan is a highly unlikely event that can completely alter the experiences of past observations. These are theories discussed in the book "The Black Swan. The Impact of the Highly Improbable" by Nassin Nicholas Taleb (original version on Amazon, The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable).

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