International. Cyber subversion — online propaganda and hacking that deliberately attempts to undermine the authority of political leaders — poses the greatest threat to state stability, according to analyst GlobalData.
The report notes that while not actively destructive, cyber subversion requires the least technological competence to implement and maintain, and is not usually considered when developing cyber deterrence capabilities and policies.
Emilio Campa, thematic analyst at GlobalData, comments: "When talking about cybersecurity, traditional threats such as data theft and operational disruption come to mind more easily. However, these types of attacks require high levels of organization to implement and maintain, as well as a certain level of technical competence. On the contrary, cyber subversion exists for prolonged periods on the Internet with minimal maintenance. If successful, it can undermine confidence in the authority and competence of political leaders."
An obvious example of cyber subversion was Russia's role in the 2016 and 2020 US presidential elections. The aim was to undermine support for the democratic process and denigrate Democratic Party candidates. In some U.S. states, a small change in voting behavior is enough to affect the bottom line, and subversive action can cause that change. The various disinformation campaigns surrounding recent vaccine launches are also an example of attempts to undermine faith in government-backed operations.
Campa continues: "States need to be aware of these types of threats, as the subversive potential of cyber operations has been discovered. Espionage, sabotage, and subversion have been conventional tactics in physical combat for thousands of years: Knowing what your enemy knows, taking out their key infrastructure, and undermining their political system have always been favored strategies for defeating opponents. These tactics have now moved into cyberspace, and it is the cyber threat that requires the least technological competence to implement and maintain."
The range of potential attacks has only grown with the interconnection of the Internet of Things (IoT).
Campa adds, "Now everything is connected, which means companies have additional potential weaknesses that need constant defense. All attackers need to do is find a small breach that has been left unguarded in these ever-vast networks. Moreover, in this globalized era, subversive cyber initiatives can come from anywhere. These campaigns can be reactive to current events in a way that traditional cyberattacks cannot. They also require less technological power and understanding to implement and can be combined with other cyberattacks to maximize their impact. All of this makes cyber subversion a more dangerous threat to modern states than traditional cyberattacks.
"It is imperative that states are aware of this threat and ensure that they are prepared. This can be by expanding deterrence capabilities or developing a global cyber policy. Without effective strategies to prevent them, the potential threat of cyber subversion will only increase."
