Latin America. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that Peru will maintain the levels of growth achieved in 2012, and predicts that at the end of 2013 the economy will increase by 6.3% and in 2014 to 6.1%
The semi-annual report "Global Economic Outlook", developed by the IMF, points out that in Chile, Mexico and Peru growth has been strong during 2012, although it will moderate in the future.
Chile and Peru will maintain the growth levels they registered in 2012, with 4.9 and 4.6% of Chile in 2013 and 2014, respectively, and 6.3 and 6.1% of Peru in the aforementioned period.
The IMF estimates that the region will continue to grow, but reduces the rate from 3.6 to 3.4% at the end of the year; however, it will continue to improve for 2014, when it achieves 3.9%
"In the Caribbean, political challenges are more pressing, because growth is still held back by high debt levels and weak competitiveness," the report said.
Caribbean countries will grow from 2.4% in 2012 to 2.2% this year and three percent on average in 2014, due to the boost in tourism flow.
Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay were the countries that suffered the most in the past from Brazil's slowdown. Now the IMF is also talking about a rebound for them. In the case of the Paraguayan economy, it goes from a negative growth of 1.2% in 2012 to an advance of 11% in 2013, to moderate later to 4.6% in 2014.
For Argentina, growth is projected at 2.8% this year and 3.5% next year. These forecasts, in any case, are made with alternative data to those provided by Buenos Aires. Express reference is also made to the Argentine Government's controls on imports and other foreign exchanges, which affects the business climate and investment.
Mexico will grow by 3.4% over the next two years, a slowdown of half a point compared to 2012. Chile and Peru also see a moderation in growth towards their potential. For the countries of Central America, the IMF speaks of an average economic expansion of more than 4% thanks to the growth of exports. Panama clearly stands out from the rest. Fiscal consolidation in some of these countries is tempering demand.
As for Colombia, the IMF cut its growth projections for 2013 and 2014 by one tenth to 4.1 and 4.5 percent, respectively.
The exception in the Latin American region is Venezuela, as highlighted by the IMF in its situation map by representing the country with a pink color. From an expansion of 5.5% last year, the Venezuelan economy will cool to 0.1% in 2013, then rebound to 2.3% in 2014. The stagnation is attributed to a cut in public spending and a fall in private consumption.
